Pakistani inflation rose to 10.51 percent year-on-year in November, after easing to a 22-month low in October, on higher food and oil prices and analysts said they expected it to stay in double digits in coming months.
The consumer price index (CPI), a key indicator of inflation, rose 10.51 percent in November from a year ago, and was up 1.39 percent over October, the Federal Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.
“Inflation for November was a little higher than expected but it is primarily because of rising oil and food prices,” said Asif Qureshi, director at Invisor Securities Ltd.
“We expect inflation to be in the lower double digits until the end of this fiscal year,” he said. Pakistan’s fiscal year ends on June 30.
A Reuters poll of 11 analysts this week had forecast November’s CPI would rise by 10.0 percent year-on-year, on higher commodity prices and as the impact of a high base effect lessened.
Inflation hit a record high of 25.3 percent in August last year because of a global rise in oil and food prices but it had been decreasing since October 2008.
With inflation in October this year rising at its slowest pace in 22 months, the central bank cut its policy rate by 50 basis points to 12.5 percent on Nov. 24.
The wholesale price index (WPI) rose 12.46 percent in November from a year earlier, and was up 2.78 percent over October, the bureau said.
Using 200001 as the base year, the CPI index stood at 212.02 in November against 209.11 in October. The WPI index stood at 220.98 in November against 215.01 in October.
Consumer price index 212.02 209.11
Month-on-month change (pct) 1.39 0.95
Year-on-year change (pct) 10.51 8.87
Wholesale price index 220.98 215.01
Month-on-month change (pct) 2.78 1.17
Year-on-year change (pct) 12.46 3.83