Novel coronavirus has devastated the world causing 390,000+ casualties up till now. Currently, with almost 6.7 million infections worldwide the situation is very grim. The question on everyone's lips is how long is this COVID-19 pandemic going to last? Or is there going to be a second wave?

Unfortunately, the answers are based barely on assumptions and past experiences of flu pandemics as doctors and scientists are still unable to decode this virus. So no one can say with certainty what the future holds for humanity. But one thing is for sure that we've to adapt to a new normal as long as a cure or vaccine develops for this deadly bug. As Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said:

"We don't make timelines, the virus makes the timelines."

As lockdown restrictions continue to lift across Pakistan and all over the world, there's a concern that the number of cases is very likely to escalate. Then there's also the fear of a second wave of the virus in fall worldwide.

Unfortunately, the full extent of short-term and long-term effects of the novel coronavirus, and the disease it causes, are still unknown, including how long the patient may be immune after he recovers and what are the chances of re-infection?

We can't say anything for sure as the data is too small and the oldest recovered patient has only been virus-free for 5-6 months.

How long will it take to eradicate COVID-19?

A simple answer is that no one can predict it with a hundred percent accuracy. But there are some estimates, some US experts believe that the virus might last for two years. Other experts don't give any timelines and are of the opinion that without a vaccine it’s likely to live years.

But there is a consensus on one thing that our future is hazy for several reasons. As so much depends on human actions, both individually and collectively.

The other worry is that no one's sure how long the immunity for COVID patients lasts. Long-term immunity is key to end viral diseases. It's estimated that if immunity lasts a couple of years or more, the viral disease could fade in a few years. But on the other hand, if immunity wanes within a year, we can witness new waves of the virus every year until an effective vaccine is widely available. The issue with vaccines is that all vaccine trials are in the initial phases right now and it's said that it will take at least 12-24 months until a vaccine is available.

Is the second "wave" of the virus a possibility?

Yes! Most experts and people who deal with infectious diseases anticipate the new "wave" of viral disease to happen this fall or winter. Usually, flu cases tend to drop off during the summer, it has led some health experts to hope COVID-19 cases also may go down when the weather gets warmer. It's known that other coronaviruses don't fare well during summer months because, once outside the body, both the hotter temperatures dry them out and the UV light from sunnier weather affects them. (Though effects of hot temperature on novel coronavirus are still unclear.)

Experts are of the opinion that if there is a second coronavirus wave, the severity of the outbreak would depend on multiple factors, like how well people maintain social distancing and how many people wear face masks. The mass screening of communities worldwide, potential genetic mutations in the coronavirus that could make it more or less virulent, development of an effective vaccine, and the development of safe, effective treatments for the COVID-19 are some other factors that will also determine the severity of the second wave.